Závislost hrubého domácího produktu na vývoji akciového trhu. Příklad České republiky
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Date
2014-03
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Mark
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Vysoké učení technické v Brně, Fakulta podnikatelská
Abstract
Purpose of the article: This paper deals with the dependence of the gross domestic product of the Czech
Republic based on the development of stock markets. Author aim is to present the development of the Prague’s,
Frankfurt’s and New York’s index and their comparison with the development of the Czech economy by
regression analysis.
Scientific aim: The main scientific goal of this paper is to answer following questions: Which one of the
above-mentioned indices is the best to determine the direction of future development of the Czech economy?
How early advance is possible to predict the development of GDP and with what reliability?
Methodology/methods: The correlation analysis for all stated indicators was used to determine the dependance
of the Czech economy. For domestic indicators are used quarterly data. For foreign indicators are used annual
data. The choice of foreign stock exchanges and their indexes was not random. Frankfurt was chosen due
to high exports of the Czech Republic to Germany. New York was chosen due to the capitalisation of stock
market. The specific index NYSE (Dow Jones EURO STOXX 50) was chosen due to its portfolio, which is
based only on companies that are resident in the euro area.
Findings: GDP of the Czech Republic is mainly based on the index of the Prague Stock Exchange.
Trend of GDP develops according to PX, with a delay of five quarters. Despite the fact that the PSE
is not highly developed capital market, like the other two.
Conclusions: Economy of the Czech Republic depends on the development of stock markets. The reaction to
stock market development is not always visible, but the delay about five quarters became evident. This result
is also supported by the research mentioned by Kislingerova (2001) in her book.
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Trendy ekonomiky a managementu. 2014, VIII, č. 18, s. 57-66. ISSN 1802-8527.
http://www.fbm.vutbr.cz/cs/fakulta/vedecky-casopis/aktualni-cislo/1972-trendy-ekonomiky-a-managementu-cislo-18-rocnik-viii
http://www.fbm.vutbr.cz/cs/fakulta/vedecky-casopis/aktualni-cislo/1972-trendy-ekonomiky-a-managementu-cislo-18-rocnik-viii
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cs
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© Vysoké učení technické v Brně, Fakulta podnikatelská