Predicting the Bankruptcy of Construction Companies: A CART-Based Model

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dc.contributor.authorKaras, Michalcs
dc.contributor.authorRežňáková, Máriacs
dc.coverage.issue2cs
dc.coverage.volume28cs
dc.date.accessioned2020-08-04T11:01:27Z
dc.date.available2020-08-04T11:01:27Z
dc.date.issued2017-04-28cs
dc.description.abstractCompany bankruptcy is a frequent research topic, and with regard to current economic developments, its importance and relevance is undisputable. Models created in different conditions do not achieve the accuracy claimed by their authors. The aim of this article is to present the results of research associated with the development of a bankruptcy model designed for construction companies. Due to the properties of financial data, the quality of the model, i.e. its discrimination ability, is strongly influenced by the choice of the method used to derive the model. The model was developed for the years 2011–2014 based on 29 financial indicators of companies operating in the construction industry, which were calculated on the basis of accounting data of the companies contained in the AMADEUS database. A non-parametric method of Classification and Regression Trees (CART) was used to derive this model. The discrimination ability of the model was evaluated based on the percentage of correctly differentiated companies and the percentage of Type I and Type II errors. To test the discrimination accuracy of models, the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (ROC curve) and the Area Under Curve (AUC) were also used. Based on these tests, it is possible to graphically and numerically measure the discrimination ability of the models. The discrimination accuracy of the model created on the basis of the data of construction companies was compared with other selected models, which were not created using the data of construction companies. The comparison clearly showed that the model created especially for the construction companies achieves the highest discrimination ability.en
dc.formattextcs
dc.format.extent145-154cs
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfcs
dc.identifier.citationEngineering Economics. 2017, vol. 28, issue 2, p. 145-154.en
dc.identifier.doi10.5755/j01.ee.28.2.16353cs
dc.identifier.issn1392-2785cs
dc.identifier.other135186cs
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11012/64790
dc.language.isoencs
dc.publisherKaunas University of Technologycs
dc.relation.ispartofEngineering Economicscs
dc.relation.urihttp://inzeko.ktu.lt/index.php/EE/article/view/16353/8737cs
dc.rights(C) Kaunas University of Technologycs
dc.rights.accessopenAccesscs
dc.rights.sherpahttp://www.sherpa.ac.uk/romeo/issn/1392-2785/cs
dc.subjectFinancial Ratiosen
dc.subjectBankruptcy Predictionen
dc.subjectClassification and Regression Treesen
dc.subjectROC Curveen
dc.subjectConstructionen
dc.titlePredicting the Bankruptcy of Construction Companies: A CART-Based Modelen
dc.type.driverarticleen
dc.type.statusPeer-revieweden
dc.type.versionpublishedVersionen
sync.item.dbidVAV-135186en
sync.item.dbtypeVAVen
sync.item.insts2020.08.04 13:01:27en
sync.item.modts2020.08.04 12:27:38en
thesis.grantorVysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta podnikatelská. Ústav financícs
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